Shares of IndusInd Bank, one of the leading private sector banks, have rebounded notably in recent sessions following a sustained period of selling pressure. Over the last eight trading sessions, it has recovered 6% to ₹983 apiece from its one-year low of ₹928.
Prior to this recovery, the stock experienced significant selling pressure between mid-September and late December, during which it lost 37.2% of its value. This decline was driven by the bank’s poor performance in the September quarter (Q2FY25), which also led to multiple target cuts by brokerage firms, fueling one of the bleakest days for the stock in recent history.
The severe sell-off also caused the stock to conclude CY24 with a nearly 40% drop, marking its biggest yearly decline since its listing on exchanges in 1998.
Looking ahead, analysts remain cautious about further gains in the stock following the bank’s Q3FY25 business update, which came in lower than estimates.
Disappointing performance continues
Domestic brokerage firm Incred Equities, in its recent report, stated that the bank delivered another lower-than-expected performance during 3QFY25, with a negative surprise on the deposit front. Total deposits declined by 1% QoQ (+11% YoY), whereas advances grew by 2.8% QoQ (+12.3% YoY), resulting in a steep rise in the CD ratio to 89.6% against 86.5% during 2QFY25.
The bank’s CASA ratio also declined to 34.9%, compared to 35.9% last quarter and 38.5% last year. The brokerage said that the sequential decline in total and CASA deposits during 3QFY25 indicates an inability of the top management to create a healthy deposit franchise for the bank.
Bharat Financial (BHAFIN) acquisition was expected to create a deep rural deposit franchise for the bank, which also has not played out to date. Such a deposit struggle will weigh over IIB’s ability to convert into a large private-sector bank.
The brokerage noted that the bank has been struggling with lending growth, especially in retail lending, over the past few quarters. The MFI segment (BHAFIN) is facing severe macroeconomic headwinds, while the auto finance business is struggling due to the adverse auto demand cycle.
The bank’s non-vehicle retail loans book mainly consists of personal loans and credit cards, which also remain out of flavour for now. This is below expected performance, and the market may take it negatively, it noted.
“We expect the margin to be stable in 3Q FY25, with improvement due to LDR being knocked off by a rise in secured products. We are closely monitoring the asset quality trend for the bank, considering large MFI and vehicle finance portfolios as well as the recent surge in the small corporate portfolio of the bank,” said Incred.
That said, the brokerage maintained its ‘hold’ rating on the stock with a target price of ₹1,350 per share, which implies a 47.5% upside from the stock’s previous closing price.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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