Brent crude outlook bearish on oversupply, grim oil demand; 2025 average pegged at $74 after hitting $80 in 2024
Oil prices are likely to be constrained near $70 a barrel in 2025 as weak demand from China and rising global supplies are expected to cast a shadow on OPEC+-led efforts to shore up the market. Brent crude would average $74.33 per barrel in 2025, down from a forecast of $74.53 in November, marking an eighth straight downward revision.
The global benchmark Brent crude has averaged around $80 a barrel so far this year and was poised for a 3% yearly decline on weakening demand stemming from top importer China.
U.S. crude is projected to average $70.86 per barrel in 2025, compared with last month’s expectation of $70.69. Most of the poll respondents expect the oil market to be in a surplus next year, with analysts from JPMorgan predicting that supply will outpace demand to the tune of 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd).
OPEC+, which pumps about half the world’s oil, at its December meeting pushed back the start of oil output rises by three months until April 2025 and extended the full unwinding of cuts by a year until the end of 2026.
Global oil demand was seen growing between 0.4 million and 1.3 million bpd in 2025, the poll showed. That compares with OPEC’s 2025 growth estimate of 1.45 million bpd.
Markets are also bracing for substantial policy shifts, encompassing tariffs, deregulation, and tax amendments as Donald Trump is set to return to the White House in January 2025.
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