Gold and silver shine bright: Experts predict another 10-25% rally to fresh high in 2025

Gold and silver delivered exceptional returns in 2024, with both metals registering gains exceeding 25 per cent. Gold reached an all-time high of $2,800 ( ₹80,000) per 10 grams on October 31, while silver soared to $35 ( ₹100,000) per kilogram on October 23. These record-breaking levels were fueled by the metals’ safe-haven appeal amid escalating geopolitical and economic uncertainties.

ICICI Securities’ Bullish Projections for 2025

ICICI Securities projects further gains for both metals in 2025. Gold prices are expected to climb to ₹85,000 per 10 grams, while silver could reach ₹1,10,000 per kilogram. The domestic brokerage attributes these forecasts to robust central bank buying, trade war concerns, and strong industrial demand.

In its report, the brokerage emphasised the role of geopolitical risks and central bank reserve diversification as critical factors boosting gold prices. For silver, the projected market deficit and rising industrial usage, particularly in the green energy sector, are expected to underpin the metal’s upward trajectory.

Gold Outlook: A Safe-Haven in a Volatile World

As per ICICI Securities, globally, gold prices are forecasted to rise to $2,900-$3,000 in the coming months, supported by ongoing monetary easing by major central banks and steady central bank gold purchases for reserve diversification. Despite potential headwinds from a strong US dollar and rising Treasury yields, renewed ETF inflows and robust central bank buying—186 tonnes in Q3CY24 and 694 tonnes year-to-date—are expected to underpin the bullish trend.

“Given the current scenario, central banks are likely to continue diversifying their reserves with gold for financial and strategic reasons,” ICICI Securities stated in its report.

China remained a top gold buyer in 2024, adding 34 tonnes to its reserves. ICICI Securities believes that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) will continue its gold purchases due to the relatively low proportion of gold in its foreign exchange reserves compared to other assets.

Pankaj Pandey, Head of Research at ICICI Securities, noted, “We anticipate fresh investment demand for gold in 2025 as investors seek a store of value amidst trade war anxieties.”

Meanwhile, Renisha Chainani, Head of Research at Augmont, also highlighted gold’s upward trajectory, stating, “The macroeconomic environment remains favourable for gold, with falling interest rates and foreign reserve diversification amid geopolitical tensions creating a perfect storm for the metal. Although higher USD and tighter monetary policies may pose challenges, trade frictions are likely to enhance gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.”

Chainani advised investors to adopt a “buy-on-dips” strategy, noting that while gold and silver prices may experience periodic fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains positive. She projected gold to touch $3,000 (approximately ₹85,000) within the next six months.

On the downside, gold is expected to find strong support at $2,500 ( ₹73,000).

Silver Outlook: Riding the Green Wave

Silver is poised to outperform gold in 2025, supported by strong industrial demand from green energy applications, including photovoltaics and electric vehicle (EV) electrification, said ICICI. Global industrial silver demand, expected to surpass 700 million ounces in 2024—a 7 per cent increase—is anticipated to rise further in 2025.

ICICI Securities projects silver prices to reach $37 to $38 per ounce, benefiting from renewed investment demand amid potential interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions. The global silver market is forecasted to remain in deficit for the fourth consecutive year, further bolstering prices.

Additionally, ETF demand for silver is expected to surge in 2025, driven by monetary easing across major economies, hopes of additional stimulus packages from China, and heightened geopolitical risks.

Chainani predicts silver to reach $38 (around ₹1,15,000) within the next six months, On the downside, silver’s support level is estimated at $28 ( ₹85,000). With a potential upside of 12 per cent for gold and 25 per cent for silver, alongside minimal downside risks of 3-4 per cent, Chainani recommended allocating at least 10 per cent of an investment portfolio to each metal in 2025 to achieve better risk-adjusted returns.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.